Two Unexpectedly Different Political Paths
By Alexandros Ntaflos
A few days ago, Greece was celebrating the fiftieth anniversary of the historic Polytechnic uprising. According to many historians, the radical nature of this uprising played an important role in the subsequent major social change brought about by the Metapolitefsi, gradually consolidating the political hegemony of the centre-left/left for the following decades. 50 years later the situation looks completely different. The double elections of May-June 2023 consolidated the striking hegemony of the centre-right/right in the country.
Meanwhile, the renewal of the government mandate of socialists and leftists in Spain was officially approved. This coalition has been ruling the country since mid-2018, bringing significant changes in many policy areas (expansion of the welfare state, endorsement of social/individual rights, multidimensional foreign policy). Similar to Greece, in the mid-1970s Spain re-established democratic polity with the centre-left/left dominating the political system from the 1980s onwards. At the same time, both countries faced severe economic/political crises for about a decade (2010-2018). Therefore, we have two countries with a similar (contemporary) political history that are in a completely different situation today. How can we explain this?
Obviously, there are various causes and explanations. However, one stands out and largely defines the opposing political paths of the two countries. It has to do with the different electoral systems. In a proportional system, the number of parliamentary seats for each party is proportional to its electoral percentage. This obviously favors the formation of coalition governments (or the creation of electoral coalitions), since it is very difficult for a party to get more than 50% to form a single-party government. In Spain there has been a proportional system for decades which forces the smaller (usually more radical) parties to cooperate with the largest party that is ideologically closer to them. But within majoritarian systems, the winning party gets additional seats in parliament (more than its electoral share) so it is easier to form a government. This usually leads to the creation of one-party governments. In Greece, with the exception of the 1989/90 elections, and the first ballot in 2023 (May elections), there has been a majoritarian electoral system in which the two biggest parties fight to get the most votes in order to formulate a single-party government.
In this context, different political cultures have gradually emerged within the two countries. For example, parties such as KKE(Communist Party of Greece), which persistently oppose any possible government coalition, would be almost unthinkable to have significant electoral influence in the Spanish political system. By the same logic, such a bad relationship between Pasok (Panhellenic Socialist Movement) and Syriza (Coalition of Radical Left) which has impeded any possible cooperation between them would be uneven in Spain. The left-wing Podemos in Spain, similar to what Syriza did in Greece in the years of the economic crisis (2010-2016), heavily attacked both the right-wing PP (People’s Party) and the center-left PSOE (Spanish Socialist Workers’ Party). However, given how it was impossible to govern alone, it gradually improved its political relationship with the ideologically closer governing party (PSOE). On the other hand, Syriza, taking advantage of the majoritarian system, sought to replace Pasok (and almost succeeded) as the -progressive- force opposing the right-wing ND (New Democracy). Hence, when some years later (having in the meantime changed the Greek electoral system to a proportional one) aimed at the formation of a progressive front with Pasok and KKE, it received deafening refusals from both. These refusals were basically a consequence of the embedded political culture analyzed above.
Ultimately, the importance of the electoral system on the parties political behavior is demonstrated once again. Ideological affinities often prove unable to lead to party cooperation when they are not accompanied by adequate electoral incentives. At the same time, the political cultures shaped by the electoral systems decisively influence the strategy of the actors. The most striking demonstration was the Greek elections of May 2023. The four-year controversial rule of the right-wing ND was denounced by all parties on the centre-left/left ideological spectrum. These parties even had 45% of the votes, against 41% of the right-wing ND. However, due to the established political culture, a possible front of the left-wing parties against ND was unthinkable. Thus, ND triumphed, continuing to govern and further promoting the right-wing political hegemony in the country.
About the Author
Alexandros Ntaflos is currently a lecturer in Political Science in Leiden University. His BA was in History/Archaeology (University of Athens), and his MSc in Political Science (Leiden University). Alexandros’ main academic interests are related to comparative politics, populism, contemporary European history, and left-wing parties.
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