by David Bernell and Ambassador Thomas Graham, Jr. (Retired)
There is a story told about Benjamin Franklin that describes his interaction with a group of citizens at the conclusion of the Constitutional Convention in 1787. When asked by a woman named Elizabeth Willing Powel what type of government the delegates had established, a monarchy or a republic, Franklin replied, “A republic, madam, if you can keep it.” His words were succinct, but he said a great deal. Our government not only requires the consent of the governed, it requires citizens to be actively involved and informed – on an ongoing basis – to maintain it.
What is true for our domestic political health is also true for the health of the global order that the United States and its allies brought into existence after World War II, and which was even more fully realized after the fall of communism. This order has rested on American power, but not exclusively, along with allies and global institutions such as NATO, the UN, the WTO, the EU, and a veritable “alphabet soup” of numerous international organizations that address everything from health to economic development to refugee resettlement. This has produced an international system that is relatively easy for countries to join and benefit from, and many have done so. For all of its shortcomings and faults (and there are plenty), this US-led liberal internationalist order has had a remarkable track record: the spread of democratic governance to many nations, the liberalization of trade and markets, economic growth that has brought hundreds of millions of people out of poverty, freedom of navigation of the seas, and the avoidance of war among the great powers.
The times when the United States has abused its power and position, and the trust it has built up with allies and trading partners – the war in Iraq is a prime example – has demonstrated the dangers inherent in a world in which one country holds such great power. On the other hand, the absence of US leadership and engagement in times of global crisis is also usually a dangerous situation. Robert Kagan, in his book The Jungle Grows Back, argues that countries around the world, particularly in the West, have become accustomed to living in a world that has been underwritten by American influence, and that governments and their citizens are failing to notice that the global order itself may be changing – not for the better – into one defined by the great power rivalries and continual wars of past centuries. Fareed Zakaria makes a similar point in his new book, Age of Revolutions, “The opposition to American power is easily visible in the geopolitical realm. After three decades of unquestioned American hegemony, the rise of China and the return of Russia have brought us back to an age of great power competition. These nations, as well as some regional powers such as Iran, all seek to disrupt and erode the Western-dominated international system that has ordered the world in recent decades.”
The Russian invasion of Ukraine has made obvious and immediate the changes happening before us. Numerous countries have benefitted from an international system that has helped to make them more secure and prosperous, and they want to continue to support it, but the question remains regarding what they are willing to do. It is now incumbent upon them, particularly the United States, to maintain the global order…if they can keep it, now that the future of that order is at stake.
Ukraine is running out of the weapons, resources, and support it needs to hold back the Russian military, which is now making gains on the battlefield. While one could previously find commentary on the war suggesting that Ukraine could defeat Russia, there is at this time more conversation on the real possibility of Ukraine being defeated. Many nations in NATO and the EU, along with Japan, South Korea, Australia and others have provided military and economic assistance to Ukraine. The United States, however, has provided the largest sum of aid, but not lately. President Biden, the US Senate, and a majority of members of the US House of Representatives have supported legislation to provide more aid to Ukraine, but it was held up in Congress for months. Republican Speaker of the House Mike Johnson – who has in general been dutifully obeying Donald Trump’s commands, which run contrary to American objectives and instead align with Putin’s – had been refusing to hold a vote on the issue in 2023, and then later refusing to consider the foreign aid bill passed by the Senate in February 2024. However, he eventually changed his tune and gave in to the pressure to let the House vote. On April 20 a series of votes on separate bills to provide aid for Ukraine, Israel, Taiwan, and other measures all passed, after months of waiting and delays. This will result in quick passage in the Senate (the Senate has to revisit the matter and pass a bill identical to the House version), and a signature from President Biden in the coming days, with new aid being delivered to Ukraine soon.
In the midst of this ongoing debate over US policy and its role in the world, the Prime Minister of Japan, Fumio Kishida, came to the United States to meet with President Biden and address the US Congress on April 11. Moments such as these can be important, as sometimes it takes an outsider, a visitor, to look at a situation and explain it to those on the inside. The Prime Minister fulfilled this role in his speech to Congress, seeking to remind Americans of who they are and what their country means to the world. He was speaking in particular to the Republican Party and its Congressional members who are beholden to Donald Trump and support his brand of foreign policy that would abandon Ukraine. Kishida said that, “The U.S. shaped the international order in the postwar world through economic, diplomatic, military, and technological power. It championed freedom and democracy.” He stated that the United States encouraged and helped to bring about the security and prosperity of many nations, and that, when needed, it made “sacrifices to fulfill its commitment to a better world.”
This is no time, the Prime Minister argued, to turn away from the decades-long project the United States has championed. “The international order that the U.S. worked for generations to build is facing new challenges, and we are now at an inflection point that will define the next stage of human history.” For this reason, he said, “The world needs the United States to continue playing this pivotal role in the affairs of nations.” However, rather than seeing an America that continues to embrace its much-needed presence in global affairs, Kishida told Congress that he is noticing the opposite. “As we meet here today,” he stated, “I detect an undercurrent of self-doubt among some Americans about what your role in the world should be.” The Prime Minister’s words offered a very diplomatic and gentle reprimand to the Congress, but it was a reprimand nonetheless. “The leadership of the United States is indispensable. Without U.S. support, how long before the hopes of Ukraine would collapse under the onslaught from Moscow? Without the presence of the United States, how long before the Indo-Pacific would face even harsher realities?”
The part that Kishida left unsaid is that the United States risks forfeiting its global role and leadership, and its ability to impact and shape international affairs as it has in the past. What’s more, he is reminding Americans that the consequences for countries around the world will be disastrous if this happens. In this light, he was telling his audience that the question before Congress was not simply about aid for Ukraine, but also about how the United States wants to engage the world, and how the rest of the world will be adversely impacted if America makes the wrong choices, which really should be no choice at all when one looks at the successful results of American foreign policy since World War II.
The Prime Minister in his elegant speech also avoided (and really couldn’t bring up) the greatest crisis of all facing the United States and the world: the nearly even chance – according to the polls – that Donald Trump could be the President of the United States again in January 2025. He might win in November. If that happens, the entire conversation about America’s role in the world, its leadership, and relations with Ukraine, NATO, Japan, South Korea and other allies will drastically change. This means that even though aid has been approved for Ukraine for now, the matter is far from over. Should Donald Trump return to the White House next year, he would undoubtedly cut all funding and assistance for Ukraine. And more broadly, he would be likely to cut support to NATO and seek to withdraw from the alliance. His actions would clearly demonstrate to other democracies such as Taiwan that the United States is no longer a reliable partner in the defense of their freedom and independence. And to make matters worse, he would align closely with Putin’s Russia. He has already stated that he would be fine with Putin doing “whatever the hell he wanted” to NATO countries, and he repeatedly professes his admiration for the world’s dictators and strongman leaders, saying that “the tougher and meaner they are, the better I get along with them.”
Therefore, at stake in the November election are decisions of massive consequence, as the United States under Trump would not strengthen the global order, but could very well destroy it and turn away from what the country’s best efforts over decades have accomplished. He represents defeat for the United States, NATO, Ukraine, and the global order. And of course, he represents a unique threat to democracy at home. As former Congresswoman Liz Cheney has said, voicing the fear that Trump aims to set himself up as president for life and corruptly cement MAGA control of the country, “A vote for Donald Trump may mean the last election that you ever get to vote in.” Given these threats to the future, and the many offenses Trump has already committed, this man who currently is under indictment for 91 felonies cannot be permitted to return to the presidency. That must not happen, and making it not happen must be Americans’ number one job.
The battle for America’s government, its foreign policy, and the global order is ongoing, and it may be for a long time. Voters and political leaders in the United States have an important task at hand. “We are on deck, we are on task. And we are ready to do what is necessary,” the Prime Minister of Japan exhorted in his clarion call to Congress. “You are not alone. We are with you.” Indeed, Japan is with us, as are Ukraine and many other countries who want to live in a world that looks more like what presidents such as Truman, Eisenhower, Kennedy, Reagan, Bush, Clinton, and now Biden have envisioned, as opposed to what Trump seeks (along with his would-be friends Putin, Xi, and Kim Jong-Un). It now falls upon the United States to ensure that we are with them.
About the Authors
David Bernell is an Associate Professor of Political Science in the School of Public Policy at Oregon State University. His research and teaching focus on international relations, American domestic and foreign policy, and US energy policy. He is the author of the books Constructing US Foreign Policy: The Curious Case of Cuba, and The Energy Security Dilemma: US Policy and Practice. Prior to coming to OSU, he served as an appointee in the Clinton Administration with the US Office of Management and Budget, and with the US Department of the Interior.
Ambassador Thomas Graham Jr. is former acting director of the U.S. Arms Control and Disarmament Agency under President Clinton, and the special representative of President Clinton for Arms Control, Nonproliferation and Disarmament. He served as General Counsel of ACDA during the presidencies of Jimmy Carter, Ronald Reagan and George H.W. Bush. He is the author of several books on nuclear arms control, U.S. foreign policy, and American politics.
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